Friday's Hard Takes: A closer look at the Big Ten coaching changes

It?s the last Saturday in October tomorrow. That means it?s time to take one last deep breath as we point toward the finish line. And, already, before the first Thanksgiving turkey is cooked, the Big Ten has three job openings. I look at coaching tumult and other topics in my Hard Takes.

It has been a strange year for coaches in the Big Ten. Three schools have seen coaching changes before Halloween. It began with the stunning firing of Illinois? Tim Beckman a week before the season started, and then Maryland canned Randy Edsall following the Oct. 10 game at Ohio State.

That was followed by the shocking retirement of Minnesota?s Jerry Kill on Wednesday. Adding to the coaching craziness storyline is the earlier three-game suspension of Rutgers? Kyle Flood for not following guidelines pertaining to contact with faculty.

This month, I celebrated my fourth year with the Big Ten Network, and the football coaching tumult has been stunning since my arrival. Check it out – counting interim head coaches, Big Ten schools have had 31 head coaches from 2011-15 (* denotes interim).

Illinois: Tim Beckman, Bill Cubit*
Indiana: Kevin Wilson
Iowa: Kirk Ferentz
Maryland: Randy Edsall, Mike Locksley*
Michigan: Brady Hoke, Jim Harbaugh
Michigan State: Mark Dantonio
Minnesota: Jerry Kill, Tracy Claeys*
Nebraska: Bo Pelini, Barney Cotton*, Mike Riley
Northwestern: Pat Fitzgerald
Ohio State: Luke Fickell*, Urban Meyer
Penn State: Joe Paterno, Tom Bradley*, Bill O?Brien, Larry Johnson*, James Franklin
Purdue: Danny Hope, Patrick Higgins*, Darrell Hazell
Rutgers: Kyle Flood, Norries Wilson*
Wisconsin: Bret Bielema, Barry Alvarez*, Gary Andersen, Paul Chryst

Speaking of Bill O?Brien, I wonder if he regrets leaving Penn State after two seasons leading the NFL?s Houston Texans? O?Brien went 9-7 in his debut but is just 2-5 this season for a team that already may be circling the drain.

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Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State and Northwestern already are bowl eligible. And Michigan is one win away. But how many other Big Ten teams will get to six victories and bowl eligibility? I don?t think Purdue (1-6) and Maryland (2-5) have a shot. But what about Illinois (4-3) Rutgers (4-4), Indiana (4-4), Minnesota (4-3) and Nebraska (3-5)? Check out the remaining schedule for the teams still chasing a bowl dream.

LONG SHOTS

• Minnesota (needs two wins): Michigan, at Ohio State, at Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin
• Nebraska (needs three wins): at Purdue, Michigan State, at Rutgers, Iowa

PROBABLE

• Illinois (needs two wins): at Penn State, at Purdue, Ohio State, at Minnesota, Northwestern
• Indiana (needs two wins): Iowa, Michigan, at Maryland, at Purdue
• Rutgers (needs two wins): at Wisconsin, at Michigan, Nebraska, at Army, Maryland

It was difficult to watch Kill fight through the emotions of his farewell press conference. The sport lost one of its best with the departure of Kill, the ultimate dues-payer who won at every stop along the way. Despite never working at a place that had the best facilities, talent or tradition, Kill always won. I wonder what he would have done at an elite program.

A playoff thought: Imagine how much more cut-and-dried a six-team playoff would be if the format gave automatic bids to the winners of the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC and ACC and picked one at-large team?

With November right around the corner, it is a good time to look at the Heisman race. The Big Ten?s clear front-runner for the bronze bauble is Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott. But he has ground to make up. According to most straw polls, LSU RB Leonard Fournette is the leader to win the Heisman. And TCU QB Trevone Boykin is a distant No. 2. Then, there is Elliott and a gaggle of other hopefuls. But, some big games loom for Elliott vs. Michigan State and Michigan. If the Buckeyes can win out-and Elliott can rush for big numbers in the last two regular-season games-perhaps he can nab the Heisman.

Keep an eye on Nebraska and Penn State. Yes, neither team is a juggernaut that is in contention for the Big Ten title game, but both could have big impacts on who wins each division. The Cornhuskers still play home games vs. Michigan State (Nov. 7) and Iowa (Nov. 27); the Nittany Lions play at MSU on Nov. 28.

The Michigan State defense hasn?t been up to its usual standards, as injuries have been a key factor-especially in the secondary. The Spartans are No. 8 in scoring defense (22.1 ppg); No. 9 in total defense (356.5 ypg); No. 5 in rush defense (115.5 ypg); No. 10 in pass defense (241.0 ypg). Last year, Michigan State was No. 3 in scoring defense (21.5 ppg); No. 4 in total defense (315.8 ypg); No. 1 in rush defense (88.5 ypg); No. 11 in pass defense (227.3 ypg). Has the loss of coordinator Pat Narduzzi been impactful? I think so, more from an intangible, cult of personality perspective than from an Xs and Os standpoint.

The most surprising Big Ten stat to date? Minus-one, which is Ohio State?s turnover margin. The Buckeyes have generated 13 turnovers and committed 14 (seven lost fumbles; seven interceptions). That margin ranks No. 8 in the Big Ten ahead of Michigan, Nebraska, Minnesota, Rutgers, Purdue and Maryland. This sloppiness could be OSU?s undoing in the long run. Stay tuned.