@BTNStatsGuys: Big Ten Tourney seed scenarios entering Thursday

@BTNStatsGuys: Big Ten Tourney seed scenarios entering Thursday

Only four days remain in the 2017-18 Big Ten regular season. Here are the Big Ten Tournament scenarios entering Thursday.

Michigan’s win over Penn State gives us even more clarity. 9 of the 14 teams have only 2 options in terms of their seed range and Maryland is already locked in at #8. Ohio State, Illinois, Rutgers and Iowa are the only teams that could potentially have more than 2 options on their seed range.

Purdue needs to beat Illinois tonight to keep their hopes alive of sharing the Big Ten title. If they lose, they will be locked in as the #3 seed, which would leave Michigan State and Ohio State as the top 2 teams (order TBD). If Purdue wins tonight, the Wisconsin-Northwestern winner will be the #9 seed with the loser being the #10 seed. If Purdue loses, then the winner of the Wisconsin-Northwestern game is NOT locked into the #9 seed because of a weird tiebreaker situation (detailed under Wisconsin and Northwestern’s scenarios below). As for the bottom, things got a little clearer after last night but not a ton. Minnesota’s win over Iowa made the math easier for them and they can clinch the #11 seed tonight if Illinois loses. Speaking of Illinois, they can still finish anywhere from 11-14 while Rutgers and Iowa can be anywhere from 12-14.

I’ve broken it into 4 tiers. The first tier is the 3 teams fighting for the Big Ten Title. The second tier is teams 4-7, which have all clinched at least a single bye. The Huskers and Wolverines are the only teams that can clinch a double bye and both will finish in the Top 5 in the standings. Penn State’s loss means that they join Indiana in the race for the #6 and #7 seeds. The 3rd tier is teams 8-10 which currently have a single bye. The final tier is the bottom 4 teams that are locked into playing on Wednesday. I won’t put every scenario for bottom 3 teams since there are several so I’ll just list the seeding ranges for those 3. I’ll break them down more in depth entering the weekend.

***

The teams are listed by their current place in the Big Ten Standings (tiebreakers included).

1. Michigan State (15-2)

  • Already clinched double bye
  • Clinches #1 seed with win at Wisconsin OR Ohio State loss at Indiana
  • Clinches #2 seed with loss at Wisconsin + Ohio State win at Indiana
  • Seed range: 1 or 2

2. Ohio State (14-3)

  • Already clinched double bye
  • Clinches #1 seed with win at Indiana + Michigan State loss at Wisconsin
  • Clinches #2 seed with win at Indiana + Michigan State win at Wisconsin OR with a loss + a Purdue loss
  • Clinches #3 seed with loss at Indiana + 2 Purdue wins
  • Seed range: 1-3

3. Purdue (13-3)

  • Already clinched double bye
  • Can’t clinch #1 seed but can clinch share of Big Ten Title with 2 wins and a Michigan State loss at Wisconsin
  • Clinches #2 seed with wins at Illinois and home vs Minnesota + Ohio State loss at Indiana
  • Clinches #3 seed with a loss OR Ohio State win at Indiana
  • Seed range: 2 or 3

4. Nebraska (12-5)

  • Clinches #4 seed and double bye with win vs Penn State OR a Michigan loss at Maryland
  • Clinches #5 seed with loss vs Penn State + Michigan win at Maryland
  • Seed range: 4 or 5

5. Michigan (12-5)

  • Clinches #4 seed and double bye with win at Maryland + Nebraska loss vs Penn State
  • Clinches #5 seed with loss at Maryland OR Nebraska win vs Penn State
  • Seed range: 4 or 5

6. Indiana (9-8)

  • Clinches #6 seed with win vs Ohio State OR Penn State loss at Nebraska
  • Clinches #7 seed with loss vs Ohio State + Penn State win at Nebraska
  • Seed range: 6 or 7

7. Penn State (9-8)

  • Clinches #6 seed with win at Nebraska + Indiana loss vs Ohio State
  • Clinches #7 seed with loss at Nebraska OR Indiana win vs Ohio State
  • Seed range: 6 or 7

8. Maryland (8-9)

  • Clinched #8 seed. Will open next Thursday at Noon against #9 seed

9. Northwestern (6-10)

  • Clinches #9 seed with win vs Wisconsin
  • Can also clinch #9 seed with loss vs Wisconsin but path is long: beat Iowa, Wisconsin loss to Michigan State, Purdue loses twice, Michigan win at Maryland and Nebraska win vs Penn State
  • Clinches #10 seed with losses vs Wisconsin and at Iowa
  • Seed range: 9 or 10

10. Wisconsin (6-10)

  • Clinched single bye
  • Can clinch #9 seed with wins at Northwestern and home vs Michigan State OR with a split in final 2 games and 2 Northwestern losses
  • Can also clinch #9 seed with just a win at Northwestern as long as the following scenario doesn’t happen: Loss vs Michigan State, Northwestern win at Iowa, Purdue loses twice, Michigan win at Maryland and Nebraska win vs Penn State
  • Clinches #10 seed with loss at Northwestern
  • Seed range: 9 or 10

—————————————-

11. Minnesota (4-13)

  • Clinches #11 seed with win at Purdue OR Illinois loss
  • Clinches #12 seed with loss at Purdue + Illinois wins vs Purdue and at Rutgers
  • Seed range: 11 or 12

12. Illinois (3-13)

  • Seed range: 11-14

13. Rutgers (3-14)

  • Seed range: 12-14

14. Iowa (3-14)

  • Seed range: 12-14

***

Thanks for reading!

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